And if the effect of yellow vests was to create an RN / FI coalition, on the Italian model?

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The movement of yellow vests will leave traces. Whatever its outcome, it has already brought something new: it has brought out concretely and visibly this peripheral France, some of which had theorized the existence without providing proof, this France losers of the globalization, people "from somewhere" as opposed to people "from nowhere" (David Goodhard), in short this France of the forgotten and abandoned, that the media do not consider as the France of tomorrow, and which n hardly interests artists or academics.

But beyond this factual proof, one may wonder if yellow jackets are not about to bring about a more profound change in French political life, perhaps a real semblance of land. Just look closely at the results of the latest polls. If all the commentators have indeed indicated that the yellow vests have a strong sympathy in the opinion, they have less underlined another result: the fact that the sympathizers of the insubordinate France and the National Gathering are found on very similar positions .

<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "If we take for example the Odoxa survey for France Info and Le Figaro carried out on 21 and 22 November among 1004 people over the age of 18 (http://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/mobilisation-gilets-jaunes-a-paris-soutien-francais-samplifie/), we can see that supporters of insubordinate France (LFI) and the National Rally (RN, formerly National Front) are the most numerous to judge that the movement is "entirely justified" (respectively 70% and 71%); they are followed at a reasonable distance by sympathizers of the Socialist Party and Republicans (54% and 39%), while, for their part, supporters of the Republic are the most hostile (only 16% find that the movement is entirely justified). Similarly, supporters of LFI and the RN converge to demand that the government cancel the tax increase: each time, the two electorates give very close answers. "Data-reactid =" 31 "> If we take for example the Odoxa poll for France Info and Le Figaro carried out on 21 and 22 November among 1004 people over the age of 18 (http://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/mobilisation-gilets-jaunes-a-paris-soutien-francais-samplifie/), we can see that supporters of insubordinate France (LFI) and the National Rally (RN, formerly National Front) are the most numerous to judge that the movement is "entirely justified" (respectively 70% and 71%); they are followed at a reasonable distance by sympathizers of the Socialist Party and Republicans (54% and 39%), while, for their part, supporters of the Republic are the most hostile (only 16% find that the movement is entirely justified). Similarly, supporters of LFI and the RN converge to demand that the government cancel the tax increase: each time, the two electorates give very close answers.

Such convergence between these two electorates is extremely rare. It is not even certain that one can find precedents. However, this rapprochement can prove to be of great consequence. For the first time, it shows that the hypothesis that an alliance between the two parties, driven this time by the base in the framework of a joint action, can no longer be excluded. An option of this type would be the worst scenario for Emmanuel Macron. It must be remembered that the strategy of the latter consisted in creating a coalition of centers by phagocyting the center-left of the PS and the center-right of the Republicans, then to maintain an irreducible opposition between the two rival blocs: the bloc of left around insubordinate France, the right block around the National Rally. From this comes the rhetoric of the President on the fundamental opposition between nationalism and progressivism: by hammering that the National Gathering is struck by an absolute prohibition, it is a question of maintaining what was formerly called the "cordon sanitaire". This strategy can pay off. As long as these two parties clash, Emmanuel Macron is in a very comfortable position of quasi-political monopoly, his opponents having no chance to dethrone him. The only situation where the president could lose the majority is if a coalition between the two extremes were to occur. This option is not excluded since it was realized in Italy with the coalition of the Movement 5 Stars and the League (Salvini): against all expectation, these two parties were able to compose a government of union on the basis of a common program in which everyone kept his specificity.

<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "In France, the prospect of an alliance of this type was totally ruled out so far, so deep is the antagonism and contentiousness, which leaves a blip for the Republic in March, but the political financing cases, which hit the two parties jointly, began to change gives: both have actually found themselves equal and can no longer lecture the other.Moreover, the movement of yellow vests, if it is maintained and amplified, could well have the effect of triggering a more radical process by creating de factothrough the struggle against a common adversary, a rapprochement driven by the grassroots, it could lead the leaders to accept an option they have refused so far. It would be enough for the two parties to withdraw their differences and agree to define a common program while preserving their respective specificities, which would result for example by the combination of a social component (rather carried by insubordinate France) and of a nationalist and security aspect (carried by the National Gathering). "data-reactid =" 53 "> In France, the prospect of an alliance of this type was totally excluded until now, so much the antagonisms and the contentious are deep, leaving a path for the Republic in March, but the political financing cases, which hit both parties jointly, have begun to change the situation: both have found themselves equal and can no longer The movement of yellow vests, if it is maintained and amplified, could well have the effect of triggering a more radical process. nt de factothrough the struggle against a common adversary, a rapprochement driven by the grassroots, it could lead the leaders to accept an option they have refused so far. It would be enough for the two parties to withdraw their differences and agree to define a common program while preserving their respective specificities, which would result for example by the combination of a social component (rather carried by insubordinate France) and a nationalist and security component (carried by the National Gathering).

Of course, we are not at this stage yet. But Jean-Luc Mélenchon as Marine Le Pen perfectly know that, each in their corner, they have no chance to take power. Their option is therefore simple: either they continue each on their own, and the result will be loser-loser; they either agree to regroup and everything becomes possible. The European elections could be an opportunity to experiment with this strategy, but it is unlikely to happen on this occasion as the proportional voting system should encourage the two parties to compete separately, just to count their strengths and maximize their earnings. On the other hand, for the deadlines of 2022, one can wonder if the hypothesis of an alliance will not be seriously considered by the two staffs.

<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "
The anger of the "yellow vests" shows that the energy transition will not be reduced to a simple tax question
Yellow vests: why some French have much more reason than others to complain about the evolution of their purchasing power
Warning (yellow vests): 66% of French people think that a social explosion is possible and 71% that it would be likely to force the government to change its policy

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The anger of the "yellow vests" shows that the energy transition will not be reduced to a simple tax question
Yellow vests: why some French have much more reason than others to complain about the evolution of their purchasing power
Warning (yellow vests): 66% of French people think that a social explosion is possible and 71% that it would be likely to force the government to change its policy